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This is a perspective about any future state in US political institutional and socioeconomic state of things.  Additionally,  you are thriving now because that is how you were built, to thrive regardless of the state of things.

Yes

Why 2025 Feels So Unsettled — and What History Tells Us About What’s Next

George Friedman’s 2020 book The Storm Before the Calm made a bold claim: America moves through two long-term cycles — Institutional (~80 years) and Socioeconomic (~50 years) — and both are hitting their crisis points right now.

Understanding these cycles offers clarity amid today’s chaos.

Institutional Cycle: 1945–2025 (Ending Now).  A total of 3 Institutional Cycles in US History.

• Born in post-WWII optimism, it built massive federal bureaucracies to manage prosperity and global leadership.
• Over time, bureaucratic complexity exploded, rules outpaced citizen understanding, and unelected administrators began shaping key policy.
• Today, Americans across the spectrum feel ignored, over-regulated, and alienated from their own government.
• Common sense has given way to red tape. Trust in institutions is at historic lows.

Friedman’s forecast? The 2020s will force a constitutional-scale reset — a rethinking of how we govern, regulate, and reconnect citizens with power.

Socioeconomic Cycle: 1980–2020 (Also Just Ended).  A total of 5 Socioeconomic Cycles in US History.

• The Reagan-era cycle focused on free markets, globalization, and technological elites.
• GDP soared — but so did inequality, offshoring, and credential-driven class divides.
• Millions were told, “The system is working,” even as their jobs, wages, and communities vanished.

By 2020, discontent boiled over — left, right, rural, and urban — demanding a more inclusive, grounded economy.

What’s Next in 2025?

We’re in the “storm” now. The pain is real — polarization, inflation, regulatory paralysis, distrust.

But Friedman’s message is ultimately optimistic:

Every cycle ends with renewal. Crises force reinvention. And America, messy as ever, reinvents better than any nation on Earth.  Friedman outlined specific reason for this trait of America.

Expect the next 10 years to reshape:

• Who governs and how
• Who benefits from growth
• What “common sense” leadership looks like

History for all cycles points toward renewal and it is expected to last until the end of these cycles over the next ~80 and ~50 years.

The previous cycles will be examined in posts to come.

 

All the best.

What about your personal career model?  Is it working?

Your employer’s business model, is it working?  How do you know?  Models come and go for cars, refrigerators, cell phones and many others.

Will your personal career model bring success, longevity and achieve your goals.?

Will the company’s business model bring success, value in the market for a sustained period and prosperity for all?

For decades, the existing business models have brought mixed results.  The government model has brought mixed results, most notably debt.  Your personal professional model maybe bringing you mixed results.  What is the answer for any model?  Great question but it requires evaluations, most likely ongoing change and frequent updates to last.

Many company business models have failed completely, continue with a struggle and some are succeeding.  A question, will your personal professional model be sustainable?  Will your employer’s business model last and last through economic cycles?  There are signals for model failures and success.

What is your model’s signals?

All the best.

As we close out another transformative year, it’s worth reflecting on the sweeping waves of innovation that have shaped industries and economies – and what’s on the horizon.

Manufacturing Evolution

Manufacturing 1.0, 2.0, 3.0 are behind us.  Manufacturing 4.0 – smart factories leveraging Internet of Things (IoT), artificial intelligence (AI), data analytics is underway.  On the horizon, Manufacturing 5.0, personalized production, human-machine collaboration, factories run by AI alongside skilled human talent.

The Internet

The Internet now – instant connection, E-commerce, social media, cloud computing has transformed industries, enabled remote work, democratized information.  On the horizon, Metaverse, this offers a new frontier, immersive virtual environments, digital twins for business, decentralized collaboration.  Although in its infancy, potential appears significant.  The time is now to begin work.  Will Metaverse have a more profound impact than the Internet?  Significant investment has already been made in staff, capital investment and now the first release of a Metaverse. Source is here.

Payments

Digital payments, credit cards, online banking, mobile wallets are entrenched.  Cryptocurrency and Blockchain are expanding.  The Crypto Sector has over 20,000 different types with less than 9,000 active.  Source is here.  On the horizon, Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC) evolving crypto ecosystems and more.

Artificial Intelligence (AI)

AI and automation are shaping industries and will continue to revolutionize work.  AI’s role in predictive analytics, personalization and decision-making will continue to expand.  On the horizon, Generative AI, AI creativity, content generation and machine learning models.  AI driven automation that will reduce the need for human interaction across even more sectors.

Supply Chain Innovation

With the disruption caused by the pandemic in the supply chain, greater investment is underway in blockchain for tracking goods, AI powered supply chain optimization and localized manufacturing to mitigate risks are underway.  On the horizon, AI driven supply chain, real time, predictive analytics will improve decision-making in logistics.  Localized and distributed manufacturing will reduce dependence on global supply chains and improve local economies.

Space Exploration and Commercialization

The race for space travel, exploration, satellite launches, replace space station, moon landings and travel to Mars all continue at a rapid pace and investment.  It is a viable industry with private companies pushing the boundaries for growth.  Multiple launches each week have become the norm.  On the horizon, Moon and Mars landings, exploration, establish living environments are underway to make them a reality.  Space tourism by private citizens and private investment reached a milestone with Polaris Dawn Crew.  The space frontier and the commercialization of it will provide companies the opportunity for growth who are ready to innovate and pursue.

Education Transformation and Life Long Learning

The shift toward education and remote learning is continuing.  On the horizon, there will likely be more significant push toward personalized learning, AI tutors and micro-credentials as the demand for life long learning grows.  Metaverse is currently driven by gaming.  However, education and Metaverse are expected to thrive together.  According to one source, “students will be able to actually see what they are studying rather than purely reading text about it.  As students study and enter pages of their virtual textbooks, examples would be able to be brought to life in 3D to help students more easily understand particular complex topics.” (Danial, Kiana, Cryptocurrency Investing for Dummies, John Wiley & Sons, 2023, p 169).

Intellectual Property (IP) – Challenges, Opportunities, What’s on the Horizon

In an era defined by rapid technological advancement, intellectual property (IP) has become more critical, more complex than ever.  From AI generated works to blockchain-powered ownership and the rise of the Metaverse, the way we create, protect and manage IP is evolving.

Currently

As AI takes on a more significant role in creating art, music, inventions and design, who owns the rights, where does ownership rest?

The replicating and distributing of digital assets, is easy now.

There are currently differences in IP laws between countries making enforcement difficult.  Businesses are vulnerable to theft in jurisdictions with weaker protections.

Blockchain holds promise for IP management.

On the Horizon

Blockchain technology can revolutionize IP by enabling transparent and immutable records of ownership, licensing, and royalty payments.

AI can enhance IP management by identifying counterfeit good, pirated content and automate legal research for IP disputes.

Metaverse and IP impact, as virtual worlds and economy expands, expect the emergence of IP categories, increase disputes over ownership, trademarks and copyright of digital goods.

The standardization of IP laws across borders could simplify enforcement and strengthen protections for innovators in an increasingly interconnected world.

Conclusion

Beyond 2024, the continued convergence of technologies, industries and societies will develop further.  Innovation is no longer linear; it’s collaborative, it’s interconnected, cross-functional and holistic.  We are entering an era of rapid transformation that requires us to cross traditional boundaries.

IP is at the heart of innovation.  It is now at the crossroads of technology, law and ethics.  The future IP will be shaped not only by legal decisions but also by strategic choices we make to balance protection, access and innovation.

The key to success will be adaptability, collaboration and vision.  It is time to consider how you expect to shape the future.  As leaders, entrepreneurs and professionals, our role is to anticipate, adapt and collaborate.

Your career will be dependent on recognizing this now.  Your company’s ability to be built to last is dependent on leaders recognizing what’s on the horizon now and setting plans in place.

 

All the best

This group is at risk in the future.  The risk is about meeting interest payments coming due.

The zombie company list includes large and small companies.

Take a look.

https://apnews.com/article/zombie-business-corporate-debt-investing-interest-borrowing-d58231b7938dd23775869ad23ccd7705

Is your career, past experiences, accomplishments, education and previous employment ready to stand up to the test of corporate scrutiny, layoffs, algorithms, AI, volatility of the stock market and the overall domestic and global economy?

Time will tell but more and more companies are announcing layoffs in 2024 – Google, Citigroup, Amazon, Twitch, Nike, Intel, Black Rock and more.

Commercial Chapter 11 filings in 2023 were up 72% over 2022.  From 2019 to 2023, there were over 25,900 Commercial Chapter 11 filings.  The year 2024 is expected to continue at 2023 levels.

The analysis about the economy, interest rate, inflation and overall business climate is frankly confusing with one opinion this and another that.  It is an election year, that will contribute to the mixed messages.  However, recession is being presented more and more as under way since 2023 and the economy is about to take a major downturn in March 2024.

Unfortunately, the Chapter 11 companies, their existing business was not built to last.  Now, individuals need to ask if their careers are built to last.

 

All the best on your journey.

Various media outlets present mixed perspectives on the American economy.  One perspective that I reviewed and accept, the stock market is not the American economy and vice versa.  In media, there are multiple speculations on – interest rates, inflation, GDP and other economic information.  However, there are also economic and business-related facts that should not be ignored.

In 2023, commercial Chapter 11 filings increased 72% from 2022.  The increase in filings is expected to continue into 2024.  This expectation is for commercial as well as personal filings.  This is due to several factors.  The commercial filings include large and smaller businesses.  Source: here.

How about your company’s existing business, is its financial as well as operational performance strong enough to fund the company’s current and future needs?  Is the company investing in the existing business as well as innovation?  Is the existing business built to last?  Does your company have a practice of innovation?  If you want to understand the answer to these questions, request our survey.  Contact us through the website here.

2023 bankruptcy filings’ current pace could push the total for 2023 past the total for 2020.  The year 2023 year-to-date filings exceeds the filings in 2021 and 2022.  The year 2023 would be the worse year since 2010 at the current pace.  See the details here.

Business as usual and the ability for leaders to change direction isn’t working for some.

Where is business as usual not the model?  Space exploration has been around since the 1960’s.  Now, SpaceX has changed the business model completely.  Space exploration is rocket science and SpaceX is leading the way.

Your company’s business model – if it is business as usual, will your company survive?  Are changes necessary?

The road forward considering political, economic (interest and inflation), social, wars and labor unrest conditions are contributing to business challenges.

There are opportunities to discover that can contribute to your business.  Does your company have structured opportunity reviews like it does operational reviews?  There are opportunities out there.

All the best for your existing business and innovation journey to be built to last.

Layoffs and restructuring continue to add up for employers through August 2023.  Since January 1, 2023, nearly 3,000 companies have announced mass layoffs.  Source is here.

Is your employer’s existing business strong enough to improve year-over-year in order to fund current operations, allocate some profit back into the existing business, fund the innovation program and provide value to shareholders?

Is your company’s innovation program realizing results?  Are products or services developing through the process – identification, test, pilot, scale, commercialization and ultimately contributing to revenue and profits for the existing business’ future?

Your company’s products or services require updates, new/improved or incremental innovation to remain viable in the market.  The Incremental area of innovation allocation of resources needs to be about 70% of the total dollars.  The second innovation area, Breakthrough, needs to be about 20% of the total innovation dollars.  The innovation in this area is new to the company but not new to the world.  As is the case for all investment – this area of innovation and all areas of innovation needs accountability, measurable results, product/service ideas moving through the innovation process to generate revenue and profit for the existing business’ future.  The final innovation area, Transformational, requires only 10% of the total innovation dollars.  Transformational innovation is innovation new to the world.

Where do ideas come from for innovation?  Your company’s leadership reviews operations on a regular basis.  Why?  This review identifies, discusses and sets execution plans in order to improve performance.  Is your company’s leadership reviewing opportunities to fill the funnel for innovation with ideas and what’s next?

You can answer all these questions.

One example is about a company that began a new industry in the US back in the 1980’s.  Since the 1980’s this new industry has grown to over $13 billion in 2021 with a compound annual growth rate of over 20% expected for 2022 to 2030.  This company through June 2023 had over a 13% sales decline to June 2022.

The overall financial results for this company since 2004 to Q2 2023 are:

• Revenues exceed $7.8 billion
• Operating loss nearly $1 billion
• Net Income loss of over $663 million
• Stock performance
  • $3.83 January 1, 2004
  • $77.73 January 1, 2014
  • Current price around $5.25 or 93% decline from the high

These results are not about an existing business and innovation combination model positioned for the future.  The company has spent over $800 million in R&D.  This is about an existing business that is in decline and possibly headed toward irrelevancy.

If you want to see the combination of an existing business and innovation model at work, consider Apple.  Apple began in April 1976.  Apple’s journey now covers 47 years and its success story is widely known.  Its innovation across multiple products has influenced buyers all over the world.  Apple nears its 50^th birthday, will it continue its journey with innovative products and services that buyers want?  Will Apple’s existing business continue to improve year-over-year, allocate profit back into the existing business, fund the company’s innovation program and provide value to their shareholders?  Will Apple remain on this path of built to last that other companies in the US began in the 1800’s?  Time will tell.

Another example of the combination of an existing business and innovation model, consider IBM.  IBM began in 1911.  IBM is now 112 years old.  It has introduced products and services through the years that corporate and individuals purchased all over the world.  IBM was included in the original built to last list by Jim Collins.  Jim Collins documented his research in his book, Built to Last.  IBM continues its investment in innovation with its development of AI.  Will IBM’s existing business continue to improve year-over-year, allocate profit back into the existing business, fund the company’s innovation program and provide value to their shareholders?  Will IBM remain on the built to last path that other companies in the US began in the 1800’s?  Time will tell.

A successful combination of the existing business and innovation is dependent on leadership, mindset, culture, organization structure, financial support and others.

Does your company have it?

 

All the best on your journey.

It maybe an indication if your company is built to last – a visionary company.

Is it – “seeing the company as a vehicle for the products/services or seeing the products/services as a vehicle for the company?” (This is from the research of Jim Collins.)  If you understand the difference between the two statements, you understand one of the foundations for a built to last journey.

Products/services need to change, meet market needs in order to support, contribute to longevity of the company.

Products/services are not the ultimate creation, it is the company.