A great model to look at for your career track and/or your company’s track going forward….
The elements of the model are:
- Known Knowns
- Known Unknowns
- Unknown Unknowns
The application of this model has been applied at NASA, Intelligence Communities and others. Donald Rumsfeld, Secretary of Defense, (1975 to 1977; 2001 to 2006), presented this model in a response to a question in February 2002 at the Department of Defense News Briefing. “Reports that say that something hasn’t happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don’t know we don’t know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tend to be the difficult ones.”
In light of the current global economic and health conditions, you may want to consider the model. Let’s look first at “unknown unknowns” because of the current circumstances and of the three, it poses the highest risk to any individual, company or government. No one saw the Coronavirus coming, truly an unknown unknown. Another example of unknown unknown, 9/11. Unknown unknowns as Rumsfeld defined in his book, Known and Unknowns, “the ones we don’t know we don’t know, completely unaware, we don’t even know we are unaware of them. Gaps in our knowledge, that we don’t know exist.”
Information is always available to individuals, businesses, governments and is almost always incomplete. As Rumsfeld pointed out, “best strategy is to imagine and consider the possible, even most unlikely. Then, maybe best prepared and agile enough to adjust course when surprising information requires it – when previously unknown information becomes known.” One point to highlight – eventually unknown information becomes known, to minimize the impact is to strategize ahead of time, plan, establish contingencies and when necessary to implement them. In my past, strategic planning always included contingency plans under various scenarios that could impact the business. This could be good or bad but for many who develop strategy, the focus would be on negative events. As individuals and company leaders, there are additional unknown unknowns still to come.
The remaining two elements in the model, “Known Knowns” and “Known Unknowns.” These are less impactful but should not be ignored. Rumsfeld defined in his book, Known and Unknowns, “Known Knowns, things we know we know, facts, laws, rules – law of gravity.” This category also includes your company’s sales, profits, markets, product mix, as well as your competitors, you know. Known Unknowns, “we know there are somethings we do not know, gaps in our knowledge, gaps we know exist.” For example, we know consumers will still need, use, certain products/services next year or 5 years out (shoes, vehicles, clothes, education or training) but what specific features, characteristics, colors will be preferred – the unknown gaps. The common sense approach to this, ask questions, gather information and the gap can be reduced, eliminated, eventually making it a known known.
The model, Known Knowns, Known Unknowns, Unknown Unknowns is a practical approach with a history of use, and I suggest an approach that you should consider for yourself and for any company (for profit or not-for-profit). From any analysis with this model, there are potential opportunities for individuals and corporations.
The more concentrated questions pursued with a purpose to gather information, reveal specifics, fill in the gaps, the more unknown elements become known; individual risk or corporate risk is reduced.
So, step back and think through on some of this for your career or your company.
Keep marching through March – prepared, agile, successful.