Month: March 2020

Your employer has them, you have them, and I have them.  More importantly, the American Economy has them, as well as the global economy.  There are many secrets out there to be discovered. The secret front and center now is to discover a vaccine for COVID-19.  Once it is discovered, lives will be saved, virus treated, threat diminished. 

Peter Thiel’s book, Zero to One, devotes a chapter to “Secrets.” These are tough economic times, but change is coming.  Then, what will your company focus on? What will you focus on?   

Do you believe or does company leadership believe that there are secrets out there?  I do and my focus is to concentrate on them for my own company success and success for clients.  Why? The discovery of these secrets Is opportunity.  Opportunity identified turns into product or service that has economic value.  Thiel suggested, seek out opportunity that delivers a market dominant position for your company, employees.

What does it take to find secrets – work, discipline, intention.  What does it take to deliver secrets – Innovation.  Unfortunately, innovation success through corporations Is not great.  This fact dates back over 40 years.  I wrote in a previous blog about the 2019 Drucker Institute Company Rankings.  An element of the survey of 640 US Companies was on Innovation.  The top innovation score (#1) of the survey was 212.3 which was higher than:

•            #2 by 107%
•            #3 by 112%
•            #4 by 113%
•            #5 by 116%
•            #6 by 124%
•            #7 by 124%
•            #8 by 145%
•            #9 by 153%
•            #10 by 154%
•            #640 by 420%

The aftermath of the COVID-19 – there will be change – the who, what, where, when, why, how is not clear.  Before COVID-19, there was already change underway in every one of the 11 sectors of the NYSE –

•            Financials
•            Utilities
•            Consumer Discretionary
•            Consumer Staples
•            Energy
•            Healthcare
•            Industrials
•            Technology
•            Telcom
•            Materials
•            Real Estate

There are corporations, pre-COVID-19, that were excellent at driving opportunities (discovered secrets) to dominate market position or support current customer requirements that translated into increased revenues, profits, cash flows, higher stock prices and market cap.  They will return and continue. On the other hand, corporations that did not seek to discover secrets, innovate and achieve market dominate position will most likely return to status quo.  I previously explained a status quo strategy, check out my LinkedIn Page.

For now, please consider two key tasks

           You know this, heads down during this time of survival and struggle. All hands-on deck for employees, customers.  This will continue but there is an end to COVID-19.

           Devote some resources, it doesn’t need to be an army, grand scale, actually smaller, simple, funded strategically, concentrate on secrets out there in your market or industry is best.  The secrets exist, just waiting for discovery.

Results – your business will come out of this and it could be stronger with discovered secrets, clearly identified, work underway to develop, deliver, pilot and commercialize. 

My team can help with discovery of secrets, development, pilot, commercialization – check out the website.

Let the hunt begin for secrets.

A great model to look at for your career track and/or your company’s track going forward….

The elements of the model are:

•            Known Knowns
•            Known Unknowns
•            Unknown Unknowns

The application of this model has been applied at NASA, Intelligence Communities and others.  Donald Rumsfeld, Secretary of Defense, (1975 to 1977; 2001 to 2006), presented this model in a response to a question in February 2002 at the Department of Defense News Briefing.  “Reports that say that something hasn’t happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don’t know we don’t know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tend to be the difficult ones.”

In light of the current global economic and health conditions, you may want to consider the model.  Let’s look first at “unknown unknowns” because of the current circumstances and of the three, it poses the highest risk to any individual, company or government. No one saw the Coronavirus coming, truly an unknown unknown.  Another example of unknown unknown, 9/11.  Unknown unknowns as Rumsfeld defined in his book, Known and Unknowns, “the ones we don’t know we don’t know, completely unaware, we don’t even know we are unaware of them.  Gaps in our knowledge, that we don’t know exist.”

Information is always available to individuals, businesses, governments and is almost always incomplete.  As Rumsfeld pointed out, “best strategy is to imagine and consider the possible, even most unlikely.  Then, maybe best prepared and agile enough to adjust course when surprising information requires it – when previously unknown information becomes known.” One point to highlight – eventually unknown information becomes known, to minimize the impact is to strategize ahead of time, plan, establish contingencies and when necessary to implement them.  In my past, strategic planning always included contingency plans under various scenarios that could impact the business.  This could be good or bad but for many who develop strategy, the focus would be on negative events.  As individuals and company leaders, there are additional unknown unknowns still to come.

The remaining two elements in the model, “Known Knowns” and “Known Unknowns.” These are less impactful but should not be ignored.  Rumsfeld defined in his book, Known and Unknowns, “Known Knowns, things we know we know, facts, laws, rules – law of gravity.”  This category also includes your company’s sales, profits, markets, product mix, as well as your competitors, you know.  Known Unknowns, “we know there are somethings we do not know, gaps in our knowledge, gaps we know exist.” For example, we know consumers will still need, use, certain products/services next year or 5 years out (shoes, vehicles, clothes, education or training) but what specific features, characteristics, colors will be preferred – the unknown gaps. The common sense approach to this, ask questions, gather information and the gap can be reduced, eliminated, eventually making it a known known.

The model, Known Knowns, Known Unknowns, Unknown Unknowns is a practical approach with a history of use, and I suggest an approach that you should consider for yourself and for any company (for profit or not-for-profit).  From any analysis with this model, there are potential opportunities for individuals and corporations.

The more concentrated questions pursued with a purpose to gather information, reveal specifics, fill in the gaps, the more unknown elements become known; individual risk or corporate risk is reduced.

So, step back and think through on some of this for your career or your company.

Keep marching through March – prepared, agile, successful.